Review of the vineyard data quantification society and the european association of wine economist

Intertemporal Dependence in Alcohol Consumption Data: Evidence of Rational Addiction?

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Year: 2012
Authors: Michael P. McCullough (California Polytechnic State, United States); Trenton G. Smith (University of Otago, United States); Thomas L. Marsh (Washington State University,United States)

Intertemporal patterns in alcohol consumption for the United States are analyzed at the national, regional, and state level. We address shortcomings of linear time series models by employing nonlinear estimation techniques. Our fi ndings are consistent with the theoretical model of cyclical rational addiction, with periodicity generally between 6 and 16 years. Further examination shows a positive relationship between average volume of consumption and intertemporal cycle period.

Published in Review Enometrica, March 2012